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The roaring 1990s were very kind to Wall Street. Please check your download folder. Monthly data (mix of S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, & Cowles index). e.g. Last name is required.
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Each series begins in the month of inauguration and runs to the end of the term. Responses provided by the virtual assistant are to help you navigate Fidelity.com and, as with any Internet search engine, you should review the results carefully. The political pendulum is always swinging it seems, sometimes quickly and other times slowly. Again, over the 4-year term the difference narrows to +8.7% vs. +10.9%.Part of this difference could just be the result of small sample size. Please enter a valid last name.
Note that since the party system was not "Republican vs. Democrat" in the early days, the various occurrences do not add up to the total number of elections since 1789.What's interesting to note is that whatever the differences are in outcomes over the first 2 years following a presidential election (and there are many), they have all but disappeared by the time a full 4-year term has taken place.For instance, on average over the 2-year period, the market does better following a Republican win (+8.3%) than a Democrat win (+5.8%), but over a full 4-year term the average difference virtually disappears and we are left with +8.6% vs. +8.8% for Republican presidencies and all presidencies respectively.The contrast is even more extreme when there is a sweep. While policy initiatives like taxes and spending can affect markets, so do demographics and an effective monetary policy.From a longer-term market perspective, the upcoming presidential election is of course important, as the approaching demographic wave of an aging population increases demand for health and Social Security benefits, which are likely to result in ever-rising debt levels and the need for permanently low interest rates.Nevertheless, it's my personal sense that the 2020 election will have less impact on the markets than some suggest. Backlinks from other websites are the lifeblood of our site and a primary source of new traffic.If you use our datasets on your site or blog, we ask that you provide attribution via a link back to this page. e.g. Presidential elections and stock market returns .
While some mid-term elections reinforce a president's mandate, others cancel them out, mitigating whatever market momentum (positive or negative) was underway in the first 2 years.But it could also just be that if you wait long enough, the long-term fundamentals of earnings and interest rates, labor growth and productivity, and the mean-reverting nature of an independent monetary policy, take over in driving long-term returns.I think that's what ultimately is going on here.
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When the Republicans sweep, the 2-year average forward return is +12.2% and when the Democrats sweep it is a mere +3.4%.
John, D'Monte This information is intended to be educational and is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific investor.Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market or other conditions.
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As with any search engine, we ask that you not input personal or account information. Indexes are not illustrative of any particular investment, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.Stock markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. It might even produce some indigestion for the market if it's not considered "market friendly.
He joined Fidelity in 1995 as a technical research analyst.Fundamentals like corporate earnings, interest rates, and economic growth are the main concerns of the stock market. Republican wins without a majority in the House or Senate have produced an average 2-year forward return of only +1.1%, while Democrat wins with opposition in Congress have produced an average forward return of +14.5%.
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presidential cycle stock market chart